GUANGZHOU NPP POWER CO., LTD
NO.67, Lianglong Road
P. R. China
Tel: +86 20-37887390
GUANGZHOU NPP POWER CO., LTD
NO.67, Lianglong Road
P. R. China
Tel: +86 20-37887390
Portable Energy Storage Systems can be regarded as a “big outdoor power bank”. This type of product is a built-in high-energy-density lithium-ion battery that can provide a power supply system with stable AC/DC voltage output. The charge is usually 0.2-2kWh, and it has a greater output power of 100-2200W. It is equipped with AC and DC, Type-C, USB, PD, and other interfaces, widely used in outdoor travel, emergency disaster preparedness, and other scenarios.
As the products are accepted by the market, the application scenarios of portable energy storage continue to expand. Generally, 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity is used as the limit. Below 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity, there is more demand for consumer-grade electricity, and above 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity is more rigid.
Generally, it is used to power electronic equipment when going out, that is, outdoor entertainment needs, such as mobile phones, computers, drones, and SLRs.
Users of large-capacity products are mainly home backup power with more power outages, professional users, and outdoor users who have high requirements for electrical appliances (3-15 kilowatt-hours), or used in RVs and yachts , Off-grid huts and other off-grid needs, this scenario has higher demand for electricity and power (about 15 kilowatt-hours); or as a household energy storage module.
The development trend of portable energy storage to large capacity is determined, and major manufacturers have increased their investment. According to the statistics of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the current market is dominated by 100-500Wh products, accounting for about 50%, but its share is constantly shrinking.
On the contrary, the share of products with a capacity of 500-1000Wh has increased, reaching 40% in 2021, and the market share of products with a capacity of more than 1000Wh is only 10%, but the share is also increasing. In the future, as the cost of batteries decreases, large-capacity portable energy storage products will gradually become the mainstream.
Considering the demand for portable energy storage in outdoor scenarios, that is, there is a compound growth rate of about 50%, and the demand for new scenarios is superimposed, and the space for portable energy storage is vast.
According to the number of households, the penetration rate of outdoor activities, and the penetration rate of portable energy storage in each country, it is possible to predict the market space of portable energy storage in the outdoor scene of the market in each country. Considering the population growth and the increase in the penetration rate of outdoor activities in the Chinese and American markets, portable energy storage products are expected to achieve rapid demand growth under the continuous penetration of outdoor activities; the Japanese market considers the increase in the demand for emergency preparedness.
Based on this calculation, it is estimated that 24.14 million units will be newly shipped in the portable energy storage market in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 49% in 21-25; the newly installed capacity will reach about 16.9Gwh, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 57%; The space reached 55.1 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 49%.
2022: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies energy anxiety, and the demand for household Energy Storage Systems grows rapidly. Since 2021, the European market has been affected by rising energy prices, the price of residential electricity has risen rapidly, the economy of energy storage systems has been reflected, and the market is booming. Taking Germany as an example, 145,000 new household photovoltaics will be added in 2021, with an installed capacity of 1.27GWh, a year-on-year +49%.
Household Energy Storage Systems: demand growth under the sense of crisis & economic stimulus The global energy transformation is the general trend, and household energy self-use is the main way.
The excessive dependence on fossil energy in the energy structure has caused the energy crisis in Europe. In order to maintain national security, Europe has accelerated the process of energy transformation. The best way is to replace energy supply with renewable energy power generation.
From the perspective of grid stability, the pressure on the grid brought about by the large-scale new energy grid connection is the cause. The government guides power generation/users to configure energy storage systems through subsidies and other policies. The subsidy for distributed photovoltaic + energy storage systems in European countries is the underlying logic. Reduce the pressure of grid distribution and distribution through distributed systems. Therefore, the European household photovoltaic energy storage systems market will maintain a high growth rate.
Calculate the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics based on the number of households, consider the penetration rate of household energy storage systems to obtain the number of installed household energy storage systems, and assume the average installed capacity per household to obtain the installed capacity of household energy storage systems in the world and in various markets.
It is estimated that the global household energy storage systems capacity space will reach 57.66GWh in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 91%. Among them, the European market is the largest, with a new installed capacity of 41.09GWh in 2025, a compound growth rate of 112%; the US market will increase its installed capacity by 7.90GWh in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 71%.
Assuming that every household installs energy storage systems, the household energy storage market has a huge ceiling.
The number of households can be obtained according to the population of each country and the average family size. According to the average system charging capacity assumed by the mainstream product charging capacity in the market, the US household energy storage systems space reaches 130 million households/1725GWh, and the European household energy storage systems space reaches 130 million households/1725GWh. Reached 310 million households/2727GWh, and Australian household energy storage systems space reached 8.03 million households/60GWh.
The core driving force behind the development of domestic energy storage systems lies in the policy requiring new energy generators to be equipped with energy storage systems. All provinces and cities have issued relevant policy documents, which have certain requirements for the proportion of energy storage configuration and the number of charging hours, and the allocation of energy storage for new energy projects has been encouraged to required. The configuration ratio is generally 10-20%, and the configuration time is usually 2 hours.
25 provinces in China have issued documents clarifying the allocation of new energy storage, and Zhejiang, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Xi’an, Shaanxi and other regions have introduced local subsidy policies. Ten provinces have published price documents for energy storage to participate in peak shaving services, encouraging the development of grid-side energy storage.
Based on the demand for mandatory storage allocation, energy storage installations are closely related to the pace of wind power and photovoltaic installations. It is expected that the progress of wind power photovoltaic construction will accelerate in 2023, which will benefit the demand for energy storage.
(1) Photovoltaic: The new production capacity of upstream silicon materials is put into production, which is expected to bring down the price of the photovoltaic industry chain, and the demand for installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations has increased year-on-year;
(2) Wind power: From the second half of 2021, the cost reduction trend of wind power OEMs is clear, and the investment cost of wind power has been significantly reduced.
According to our calculations, the installed capacity of energy storage power stations is expected to reach 35.8GWh in 2022, and increase to 118.8GWh by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 64% from 2021 to 2025. Among them, China and the United States are the largest regions. In 2025, China’s installed capacity will be 36.3GWh, and the United States’ installed capacity will be 45.2GWh.
The United States is the world’s largest energy storage market, and the installed capacity of energy storage is growing rapidly. According to EIA statistics, as of August 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in the US market is 6.8GW/14.8GWh. The installed capacity of energy storage in the United States will grow rapidly in 2021.
3.3GW/8.4GWh units will be put into operation in 2021, 5.7GW/11.4GWh are expected to be put into operation in 2022 (+77%/35% year-on-year), and 8.1GW/16.2GWh are currently planned to be put into operation in 2023 (+42%/42% year-on-year ). In terms of monthly installed capacity, 415.2MW/830.4MWh of new grid-connected installed capacity will be added in August 2022, +516%/+317% year-on-year and +5%/3% month-on-month.
The catalysis of energy storage in the United States comes from the extension and enhancement of ITC subsidies in the “Reducing Inflation Act”. The income tax credit can reach up to 50% of the initial investment cost, which will promote the growth of energy storage project installations. On August 16, 2022, U.S. President Biden signed the “Reducing Inflation Act”, which revised the ITC and PTC policies. The policy period has been extended for 10 years, and the subsidy has been enhanced. The changes for energy storage systems projects are:
(1) Scope of application: Previously, only energy storage projects that were co-constructed with photovoltaics and at least 75% of the electricity came from photovoltaics could enjoy ITC. After the update, both co-constructed energy storage and independent energy storage can enjoy ITC.
(2) Credit amount: The previous ITC amount has been reduced from 30% to 26%/22%/10% in 2022/23/24. After the update, qualified projects can continue to receive 30%, and some are not eligible and the power is greater than 1MWac project is reduced to 6%.
(3) Additional credits: 1) Domestic manufacturing: projects that use all steel products made in the United States, and domestic raw materials account for 40% of the cost, receive an additional 10%/2%; 2) Energy communities: additional credits of 10%/2 %. (The low-income community condition only applies to PV and wind projects).
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The ITC credit limit is increased, and the cost of energy storage is reduced. Assume that the energy storage power station is 100MW/400MWh; the annual operating days are 350 days, fully charged once a day, and the service life is 20 years; the initial investment of the power station is $210/kwh, and the total investment is $84.1 million.
Based on the current ITC tax credit policy, the credit for new energy distribution and storage projects is 26% in 22 years and 22% in 23 years. The calculated energy storage LCOS is $0.130/kwh and $0.131/kwh, and the credit for independent energy storage systems projects is 0. LCOS It is $0.137/kwh. With the new ITC tax credit policy (30%/40%/50%), energy storage LCOS drops to $0.129/kwh, $0.127/kwh, $0.125/kwh.